Balkan Agenda

While the Balkan countries are trying to grasp what Turkey is endeavoring to do in the region, Ankara's political clout in the Balkans and the future of the Bosnia Herzegovina initiative have become a source of curiosity. In fact, there are a few points likely to have a negative impact on Turkey's Bosnia Herzegovina initiative.

The matter which made a big splash in the Turkish media within the framework of the Bosnia Herzegovina issue was the overtures Turkey made at regional level regarding Bosnia. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu brought his Serbian and Bosnian colleagues together for what he called the tri-partite consultative meeting and laid the foundations of monthly gatherings.

The thing is that Bosnian Serbs have shown opposition to Turkey's initiatives in the region from the very outset. Bosnian Prime Minister Nikola Spiric, who is of Serbian descent, implied in a speech he delivered at TOBB, the Economy and Technology University in Ankara when he came to Turkey for an official visit, that he did not support Turkey's initiatives in the region regarding Bosnia, saying nothing could be achieved in Bosnia with the intervention of its neighbors.

As the Democrat Party, which is the senior partner of the coalition government in Serbia, supported for years on end the Union of Independent Social Democrats in Bosnia Herzegovina, the Bosnian Serbs' influence on the other political parties is at a more limited level. On the other hand, Serbian officials can be said to be rather unwilling to mediate in the process of constitutional amendment in Bosnia Herzegovina because Serbia, while supporting Bosnia Herzegovina's territorial integrity, does not want the rights of Serbs in the Serbian region of Bosnia to be damaged in any way.

Moreover, the Serbian public is of the view that an unjustified solution was rammed down their throat regarding Kosovo and this should be compensated for either by the independence of the Serbian Republic or the Serbian Republic being turned into a confederal entity.

The sincerity shown by Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Yeremich at the tri-partite consultative meetings was not genuine or clear. For example, European parliamentarian British Sara Ludford revealed in October 2009 that the Serbian Foreign Ministry did a lot of lobbying for Bosnia Herzegovina and Albania citizens not to be granted any easement of visa regulations. Similarly, Serbian Foreign Minister Yeremich, in a speech he made at the European Parliament only days before Turkish President Abdullah Gül's visit to Serbia on October 25-27 October 2009, spoke slightingly of Turkey, saying that Serbs remained under the yoke of Turks for 500 years and they don’t want to be in the same waiting room with Turks for EU full membership.

Another issue to adversely affect Turkey's Bosnia Herzegovina initiative is the Serbia-Croatia relationship. The Serbian-Croatian relations which developed in the shadow of the post-war period are again soured, though not seriously, which is likely to obstruct political cooperation between the two countries. The direct and clear message from Croatia in support of Kosovo's independence is particularly a factor making for discontent in Belgrade.

Finally, the steps taken by Turkey in the Balkans are being closely watched by Washington and Brussels. Ankara's initiatives in the Balkans are most likely to get Washington's support so long as they jibe with American interests. Brussels, however, seems uneasy over Turkey's overtures because of a lack of dialogue. This is to say that Ankara will have to conduct its Bosnia Herzegovina initiative in a more coordinated way if it wants to make substantial progress. For example, Turkey believes organizing an international conference on Bosnia Herzegovina on the occasion of the 15th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Accord is necessary. The thing is that organizing such a conference is crucially contingent on the support by Brussels.